o glimpse at the 2024 presidential race this summer, a year before the two nominating conventions, is to see a picture of predictability: the current president facing off against his predecessor, a rematch of the last election. Former President Donald Trump is better positioned now to reclaim the Republican nomination than he has been at any time since he left office, and that prospect, along with a growing economy, has only strengthened President Joe Biden’s grip on his own party.
We are underestimating how turbulent next year’s campaign will be and how likely, on the current trajectory, it is to become a three- or even four-person race. If voters are faced with a nearly 82-year-old incumbent who may not be able to serve a full second term and a 78-year-old challenger who could be a felon by Election Day, millions will seek a safe harbor.
The possibility of Cornel West, tapping into the youthful discontent with the president, claiming votes from Biden’s left and a moderate, third-party candidate offering an escape hatch for voters who grudgingly supported Biden in 2020 is already panicking senior Democrats. But these officials have taken solace that, despite Biden’s weak approval ratings, no elected Democrat has emerged to challenge the president in the primary.
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